Thursday, February 12, 2009

Ratings Based Racing: What It Means At The Track

By David Gately

Finding winners in the horse racing game is never easy and has actually become more tricky with the implementation of 'ratings-based racing' over the last 18 months. Ratings based racing is forcing punters to look more closely at weights and measures in lining these gallopers up.

in late 2006, a review of the possibility of implementing ratings-based racing, found that Victorian trainers in all corners of the state overwhelmingly supported the retention of Ratings Based racing. This is highlighted by the fact that 94% of trainers in Victoria supported the keeping this form of handicap racing.

It seems obvious from feedback within the racing industry that RBH (Ratings-Based Handicapping) has been very well accepted. In fact, a survey of trainers/owners etc showed 86% were happy with the system, this overwhelming support (and of course the fact field sizes and therefore turnover is increased) will ensure this system remains in Victoria for some time.

In the highly competitive world of providing horse race tips there is a war going on between computer generated ratings and human intellect. We interviewed many racing analysts and one such professional punter was quite baffled by those using computer ratings. David Gately from OzRacingForm.com explains: "Well if this was motorbike racing I could understand using a computer to find the winner, they have a maximum speed, no upside/downside, they can't have an 'off day', wet/dry tracks doesn't bother a motorbike etc. Horses, however, are subject to a plethora of outside influences and being animals, can be brave, scared, moody, they can improve sharply with fitness level differentials etc. This is only one opinion, but I feel computer ratings are the lazy way out and not very thorough".

Computer Ratings cannot give you all the information, for example, a horse early in his/her career or even early in his/her preparation has "upside" or scope to improve many lengths... No computer can judge for this.

Finding value runners is always the way professional punters have operated, there are many favourites that run that have little hope of actually winning. These horse's are referred to as "unders" (under their true odds of winning) and when identified can set you up for a nice collect if you can work around them in betting. How do we identify such 'unders'? Well, it gets back to knowing each horse and his/her particular likes and dislikes. David Gately from OzRacingForm.com thinks this is rule No.1. He explains: "Look, knowing a horse's capabilities, his likes or dislikes, his personality if you like, are keys to having half this battle (of finding value runners/winners) won".

So, ratings-based racing should not be too scary, obviously it is a little more in-depth than say, simply a set-weights maiden. (where all horses are maidens (yet to win a race) and have the same weight) However, as explained, this type of racing can be full of 'value' (horses over their true odds of winning). - 15437

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